Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 147.062466 175.928611 210.994070 257.390116 318.187719 3.966401e+02 5.080884e+02
2025-04-20 117.942556 153.788975 202.858098 277.408086 392.584578 5.728815e+02 8.978055e+02
2025-04-27 100.697344 139.564205 197.603515 295.696982 469.259235 7.921126e+02 1.529258e+03
2025-05-04 88.421041 128.393846 192.277059 310.050551 544.268712 1.055471e+03 2.545287e+03
2025-05-11 78.518369 118.271300 185.352360 318.274365 610.931270 1.352144e+03 4.135731e+03
2025-05-18 70.152358 108.824744 177.036311 320.634534 666.215811 1.671384e+03 6.588149e+03
2025-05-25 62.609941 99.392888 166.593226 315.208714 700.728946 1.969414e+03 1.005522e+04
2025-06-01 56.154179 90.849370 156.109159 306.574649 723.270703 2.258938e+03 1.511427e+04
2025-06-08 50.746398 83.438245 146.490423 297.267735 740.115256 2.555967e+03 2.287110e+04
2025-06-15 49.450157 83.467439 151.827180 325.598081 890.756377 3.714002e+03 6.441116e+04
2025-06-22 46.205656 79.292407 147.546911 328.105045 957.271766 4.586073e+03 1.492772e+05
2025-06-29 43.936699 76.746125 146.369878 338.802908 1063.958067 6.044239e+03 5.647096e+05
2025-07-06 40.631989 71.873522 139.527718 332.588318 1104.151726 7.200455e+03 2.454400e+06
2025-07-13 39.783604 71.977928 144.295511 363.181027 1341.982151 1.171460e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 38.686980 71.404891 147.346858 389.963644 1598.725580 1.926209e+04 NaN
2025-07-27 37.350187 70.131512 148.418472 410.830330 1856.362661 3.161171e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 35.746030 68.065343 147.076821 422.793658 2080.742400 5.021772e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 33.972484 65.415633 143.746440 426.232499 2255.684298 7.639689e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 31.982696 62.066589 138.007883 418.352986 2334.964087 1.045434e+05 NaN
2025-08-24 30.031437 58.633118 131.578184 405.846009 2364.034096 1.355350e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 28.231946 55.405690 125.323030 392.411872 2373.589203 1.727371e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 28.156894 56.288724 131.003687 433.459509 3027.282223 7.033892e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 27.040288 54.526954 128.631274 437.113611 3283.577468 1.760435e+06 NaN